My thoughts on the Nintendo Switch

Nintendo just announced their weird hybrid console handheld thing, and here are my thoughts about it.

This will be a relatively short blog post, giving my early opinions of the system given the little information that’s been released, as well as thoughts on its sales potential (this is a sales blog after all) and some fun speculation.

Three minutes is nowhere near enough to get solid opinion of the system, or to have solid discussion about its future. Nonetheless, based on that trailer and all PR that has been released so far my opinion is positive, but rather wary.

In short, I kind of like it, having all Nintendo games on just one system sounds like a great idea, the partners they’ve shown so far seems good for third party support and the approach they had on the trailer seems to think Nintendo won’t be primarily targeting the system at children, as they’ve done with their most recent systems, it all seems positive.

At the same time, I don’t really see much appeal on the system, it seems like it’s trying to do many things at once and I don’t see how it could succeed on any of them. It’s a console, what the west wants, but also a handheld, what Japan wants, but it’s also in between mobile and PS4, Xbox One style consoles. It seems like a weird Frankenstein monster of a system, with what has been shown so far at least.

I guess I didn’t really had much to say here, sorry, let’s talk sales.

Right off the bat, without knowing specifics such as price, contents (like what’s in the box), battery life and software line up it’s impossible to say whether or not the system will do well or not, however, so this blog post won’t be really short let’s speculate a little.

One of the biggest problems the Wii U faced was not enough games at a fast enough rate, you could see maybe two games released in a week and then nothing for weeks, or even months as nobody was making games for the system and Nintendo couldn’t release them fast enough, the biggest issue with that is that Nintendo was focused on developing 3DS software which could be made easier, cheaper, quicker and with higher returns.

If you were only a Wii U user then you’d be surprised at just one much games the company released in year across its systems, just last year they released over 25 games and almost 20 for 2016 so far, they’re Japan’s biggest publisher by far. In 2016, which has so far been a bad year for them, they’ve still sold more software than anyone else, in the same year Square Enix released three Dragon Quest games, while Nintendo’s biggest game is Kirby

Nintendo software sells, is what I’m trying to say, not only games but systems too, if the Switch is the box that can play both Splatoon and Animal Crossing, that’s a 1.5m to +5m audience for the system, just with between those two series, just one system also means more games faster and probably better spread out; after a year or so out Nintendo could be releasing one game every two weeks on average for it, if not even more.

Of course, these audiences overlap, but not as much as many might think, there’s no “Nintendo only audience” you shouldn’t think there’s a huge overlap between the people who purchase Animal Crossing to the ones playing Smash Bros. and the one’s playing Kirby to the ones playing Fire Emblem, just because you play one Nintendo series you have to play them all.

Obviously just Nintendo games isn’t enough, as the Wii U quite clearly proves, though if this is a portable it’s most likely that 3DS developers will jump on board, with Vita developers likely doing the same.

Again, with the little information released so far, it seems like Nintendo is trying to make this platform developer friendly, which is very much a good thing. After the success of the 3DS and with how things are going expecting to see Monster Hunter, Yo-kai Watch and Dragon Quest, as well as more or less any other major series on the system seems likely, if everything goes well for it Switch could be the first system to have all major IPs across all developers since the Super Famicom.

This sounds all well and good so far, but let’s look at the other way. While home consoles aren’t the powerhouse they used to be, they still represent a billion-yen business, developers won’t just abandon PS4 in favor of Switch, many of them might opt to skip the platform all together, as long time PlayStation developers like Falcom or Compile Heart might not be willing to make the jump at all and even Switch developers might not release typical PlayStation exclusive series like Yakuza or Persona on the system either.

The PlayStation 4 is showing to be a rather healthy platform, far from what it’s predecessors did, sure, but also better than the Wii U could ever accomplish and the likely 4 million install base at the time of the Switch’s release won’t just disappear, nor will developer support. Vita audience won’t disappear either so it’ll be an uphill battle right from the start.

Another big contender will be the mobile scene, which is tremendous in Japan, chances are that many Vita developers, after the platform truly fades, will rather jump to mobile than Switch, or even PS4, and even some of the already announced Switch developers, like Square Enix and Level 5 had made it clear they’re moving their focus on mobile or looking at mobile with more importance than handhelds.

Price will probably be the biggest issue, the PS4 is already being sold for less than 30.000 yen, what would be the most realistic price for Switch? Most importantly, what will it be sold with?

Nintendo has said that they plan to sell the handheld screen, controllers and the dock in one bundle, for Japan this doesn’t sound like a good idea given that many are likely to never use the dock, that would just inflate the price pointlessly as people would see themselves paying for a device they have no intention of using and could probably diss the system due to it, think of how the Kinect was sold with the Xbox One during launch period and how it struggle because of it.

Obviously there’s the possibility that bundles will differ on certain regions, not including the dock would be a bad idea for the west, but selling it as a mandatory accessory wouldn’t be a wise idea in Japan either. Of course, not selling it in Japan at all isn’t sound either, as mentioned before there’s still a sizeable audience interested on using a home console and leaving them alone to the PS4 is a bad idea.

What I’m trying to say is that, what I would consider, the best way to sell the Switch in Japan is by doing two bundles, or sets as Nintendo likes to call them. One would include the main handheld screen and its controllers, and that’d be it really, while the other one would include that on top of the dock and the pad where both controllers can be put, or the pro controller. I’d see that as the best way to approach the Japanese market, and the system was made with Japan in consideration.

About price, well, simply put, it can’t be more expensive than the PS4, and that’s be the set that includes everything. I don’t think it’s a good idea for Nintendo to release their new system at a higher price than it. Unless they prove that the Switch is more compelling than a PS4 at launch I don’t think it should be sold at more than 30.000 yen, it should be cheaper than the Wii U at launch.

Predicting sales is a pointless thing to do, but give what we know so far, it’s a system with a lot of potential, it could do extremely well if everything falls in place perfectly.

That’s a key word here, potential, let’s hope Nintendo, and everyone else, can capitalize on it properly.

That’s more or less everything I had to say, thanks for stopping by.