Discussing the pontential of Dragon Quest XI in Japan

Dragon Quest XI will be released in Japan on July 29th, 2017, that’s nearly 9 years after the last single player Dragon Quest game and nearly 13 years after the last one on a home console, that’s a pretty big deal, not only because of the long wait but because this will be the very first Dragon Quest game to be multiplatform, XI will be released on both PlayStation 4 and Nintendo 3DS on that date, with it hitting the Nintendo Switch sometime later.

If you are reading this blog post chances are that you’re familiar with Dragon Quest, but if you’re not, just to bring you up to speed. Dragon Quest is the biggest gaming series in Japan after Pokémon and Mario, and just like those it goes past the videogames and multimedia franchise to just be of cultural significance within the country, so, a big deal. For 31 years now Dragon Quest has been the biggest series in the traditional JRPG genre, not being outdone even by Final Fantasy during its popularity peak on the PlayStation, with its staying power only being outdone by Nintendo’s Mario.

Some 70 million Dragon Quest games have been sold since 1986, making it Square Enix’s second biggest ever series in sales, this is particularly impressive as most those sales come from Japan, more than 60 million. Starting from Dragon Quest III every main line release causes productivity to drop nationwide as people call in sick for work or class to play the new game, Dragon Quest III became the first game to sell over 1 million units on its first week.

The series is incredibly popular in Japan, is what I mean to say, so such that Dragon Quest XI is expected to be the best-selling game of 2017 in Japan, like most mainline games before it. The 3DS version that is as the game will also be released on PS4, as said at the top of this post. In 31 years Dragon Quest XI will be the first multiplatform entry, not only that but the game is multiplatform in an unique way, rather than being the same game but with minor differences, like the average PS4/Xbox One multiplatform is; but rather each platform is getting an unique version of the same game, the 3DS version actually gets 2, a 2D version that looks like Dragon Quest VI and III on Super Famicom with a 3D version similar to the look of Dragon Quest IX and the 3DS remake of Dragon Quest VII while the PS4 version gets a 3D game that look similar to Dragon Quest VIII.

Essentially, they’re trying to appeal to everyone here, fans who want a cutting-edge RPG on home consoles, fans who want a proper successor to VIII, fans of the classic look of the series and fans of portable machines, this is their 30^th anniversary game (even when it’s coming out after the 31^st anniversary) and it could potentially be the last Dragon Quest game to feature the works of game designer Yuji Horii, character designer Akira Toriyama and composer Soichi Sugiyama. They’re going all out which is very interesting to see of for a Dragon Quest game.

The point of this post is, given the information available right now, to discuss the sales potential of all versions of the game, so, with a lengthy introduction out of the way, let’s get to that.

Right now, I’d say Dragon Quest XI will sell between 3 million and 4.5 million, this is not a bold prediction as, except for Dragon Quest V, all mainline game since III have sold more than 3 million and Dragon Quest IX is currently the best-selling game in the series with 4.4 million.

Could we give a more projection? Well, it’s too early to tell, but I’d say it’ll be closer to 4 million than 3 million

Could it sell more than 4.5 million? It is possible, but rather unlikely, and that brings me to the most interesting bit about this post, platform split.

As mentioned earlier the 3DS version will sell more, it’ll undoubtedly do so, the 3DS is the main gaming platform in Japan as of now, it has by far the biggest install base and it has it’s likely that large amount of Dragon Quest fans is already on the platform, however, as popular as the 3DS is, it’s not fair to simply write off the PS4 version of the game.

The performance of Final Fantasy XV should not be considered when projecting the performance of Dragon Quest XI, after all, Final Fantasy was never as big as Dragon Quest and going into XV that series had its fair share of problems. Even with the underperformance of XV it still showed there’s an audience for these AAA JRPGS on home consoles, as the game has sold over a million units already, a huge drop from previous entries, but a big number anyway

Dragon Quest VIII is one of the most celebrated titles of the series too and XI is shown to be its direct successor, in the way of it being a fully 3D grand RPG experience, after 13 years chances are there are many RPG fans that want to see Dragon Quest return to that, potentially many lapsed fans.

The PS4 version of the game should have no problem selling over a million units and it very well might become the best selling game on PS4, the big challenge for that version of the game, aside of the 3DS version, is the install base of the system, while it’ll be some 1.5 million units higher than it was during Final Fantasy XV’s release it’ll still be at 6 million at best, which is the lowest a brand new Dragon Quest has released on since Dragon Quest V hit the Super Famicom in 1992 and the PS4 isn’t growing at the pace the Super Famicom was to give the game the legs.

As mentioned before though, the 3DS version is the main issue, Final Fantasy XV underperformed while basically being a PS4 exclusive, having all the mindshare there, while this time Dragon Quest XI on PS4 will have to compete with another version of the game on a platform much more people own. The 3DS is also poised to have a very strong summer as its getting plenty of releases between June and August, while the PS4, apart from DQXI is also getting Tekken 7 and the Final Fantasy XII remaster, so the 3DS will also be the most active platform during release.

The Dragon Quest fanbase is so vast and varied, and the series has such an appeal to the more casual audience that it’s nearly impossible to be for certain either way, just how many people will get both versions, not right away but down the line? How many lapsed fans will return, and for which version, premium, portable, or both? How will the mobile games like Hoshi no Dragon Quest affect either version? It’s been so long since a last mainline game, which was released before sales of smartphones skyrocketed chances are this will be the first mainline game for hundreds of thousands of fans, maybe even more. What is the Switch version, when will it be out, where will the Switch be at that point?

That brings us to the last point of this post, the Nintendo Switch version, while it was the first game announced for the system we’re yet to see it, not only will it not launch alongside the other versions but it’s said not to be properly talked about until after the other versions release, so, with that, just what could the Switch version do?

Right of the bat the Switch version of the game lost a ton of sales potential, that is potential to sell on its own and to sell consoles, by not releasing alongside the other versions. Depending on when it comes out chances are most people interested on playing it will already have done so, though, at the same time, the game could be a nice pick up for new owners if the Switch is a long term success (which for the time being is poised to be), if it were to come out during this holiday and gave a good value proposition it could to very well, though I see it as the worst selling version of the game either way.

As mentioned before, though, this one is near impossible to predict, if the Switch were to be at some 4 million by the time of release and the system becomes more popular than anticipated we could see many 3DS or PS4 owners also getting the Switch version, on a double or even triple dip with potentially plenty of new players getting that version too, but once again this mostly depends on when it comes out and what it is. For me best case scenario it comes out this holiday, it’s a portable PS4 version with the 2D mode (potentially other stuff like characters and dungeons) and it costs no more than 8000 yen (7000 would be better), if that happens and nothing goes wrong with the Switch it could be a big seller.

Doing predictions for this is difficult of course, as mentioned before, there’s just too much to account for, however, if everything where to go well, say mobile fans show in big numbers and both 3DS and PS4 owners do the same, many planning to get the Switch version too, this could very well be a gigantic game, potentially be the best-selling game in the series, not even 5 million sounds too crazy if a perfect storm were to occur, either way it’s going to be a big game.

I’m a huge Dragon Quest fan and it’s been so long since the last main entry that I don’t have a problem talking about the series, making this post was a lot of fun, maybe we could see another with some other game in the future.

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